The Conservative Party chairman, Jeremy Hanley, had lobbied to have the VAT increase scrapped, as had the Scottish Office, and they were given a sympathetic hearing by John Major. IT WAS in No 10 Downing Street, at the annual pre-budget consultation between the Prime Minister and his Chancellor, that the fateful decision was taken to go ahead with the doubling of VAT on domestic fuel. Whether he would think it still worth having is another matter.The author is senior lecturer in politics at Strathclyde University.. The last could then, in all probability,have the Tory leadership for the asking. These adjusted figures give Labour a 24-point lead.What would happen if this lead were repeated in a general election? Another 43 MPs could lose their seats, leaving barely more than 100 Tories in the Commons. The casualties could include Kenneth Clarke and Norman Lamont, the two Chancellors associated with VAT on fuel. John Gummer (Environment), Peter Lilley (Social Security) and Richard Ryder (Chief Whip) would also face defeat.
Three more of last week's rebels would go: Ann Winterton (Congleton), Christopher Gill (Ludlow) and Sir Richard Body (Holland with Boston).Indeed, the only rebels left would be Nicholas Winterton and, in Ruislip, John Wilkinson. The latter is the one rebel who does not have to worry about a big swing against an unpopular government. The only risk to his political future is deselection.Only seven Cabinet ministers can be sure of riding out even the most violent electoral storm: John Major, Douglas Hurd, Michael Howard, Sir Patrick Mayhew, Virginia Bottomley, John Redwood - and Michael Heseltine. Set against the opinion polls, even the Euro-election result looks quite good for the Tories. Perhaps, in an early general election, the Tories would fare even worse But a 39.5 per cent Labour lead looks too implausible. After their failure to predict the 1992 election result accurately, the pollsters now produce "adjusted" figures, mainly to take account of some voters' apparent reluctance to admit that they will vote Tory.
Sir Rhodes Boyson (Brent North) would bring the total of casualties from the VAT rebellion to five out of six.An earthquake. He was swept away in a Tory landslide and so could not stand for the leadership when Michael Foot resigned.A result comparable to last June would be likely to drive even more of the Euro-rebels out. Richard Shepherd (Aldridge Brownhills), Sir Teddy Taylor (Southend East) and Teresa Gorman (Billericay) would all face defeat, leaving the rebel eight with just two survivors, plus Sir Richard Body, who resigned the Whip in sympathy. They should remember what happened to Tony Benn, hero of the Labour left, in 1983. His 32 per cent majority in Enfield Southgate would not be enough to withstand the 19 per cent swing that Labour achieved in the London North Euro-constituency. Some Tory right-wingers have suggested that Tory catastrophe at the next election would pave the way for their hero to become party leader. The casualties among former ministers could include DavidMellor and, probably to the delight of the nation's teachers, John Patten, who lost his job as Education Secretary in the summer reshuffle.But the biggest and most important casualty would be Michael Portillo.